Vancouver Condo Starts Are Down 40%. Does That Mean You Should Buy Now?

Vancouver condo construction has slowed down a lot.

According to CMHC, condo starts across the Vancouver CMA fell another 40% in the first half of 2026, making it the weakest first half since 2011.

When you see a number like that, it’s easy to think:

“If fewer condos are being built, shouldn’t I buy now before supply gets tighter?”

I wouldn’t jump there that quickly.

Because the number of condos you can buy today and the number of new condos being built for the future are two different things.

There can still be a lot of condos for sale right now.

There are also projects already under construction that will keep finishing over the next few years.

But if fewer new projects keep starting, we could eventually get to a point where fewer new ownership condos are coming behind them.

That still doesn’t automatically mean:

“Prices are going up.”

If supply falls but buyer demand stays weak too, prices don’t have to rise.

So when I look at this news, I separate today’s market from the market a few years from now.

 

If You’re Buying, Start With What You Can Actually Buy Today

If you’re shopping for a condo right now, I wouldn’t tell you to rush because of this news.

I’d start with the building and neighbourhood you’re actually looking at.

How many similar units are for sale?

What did the last few actually sell for?

Have sellers already reduced their prices?

Is there another offer on the property?

Those questions tell us much more about your position as a buyer.

Condo starts falling 40% does not mean you suddenly need to pay a seller more today.

Your leverage comes from what’s happening around that specific property right now.

If there are five similar units available and sellers are sitting on the market, that matters a lot more to your negotiation today than a headline about future construction.

 

But “I’ll Just Wait Until It Gets Cheaper” Isn’t Guaranteed Either

The other side of this is waiting.

You might look at today’s inventory and think:

“There are lots of condos for sale. I’ll just wait a few years and buy cheaper.”

Maybe.

But we don’t know that either.

If condo starts stay weak for a long time, there may eventually be fewer new ownership options coming to market.

That doesn’t mean you should buy today.

It just means waiting is a decision too.

If you’re buying a home you plan to keep for a long time, I’d rather ask:

“If this home barely goes up in value for the next two or three years, am I still comfortable owning it?”

Can you comfortably handle the monthly payment?

Do you still have enough cash after closing?

Does the home actually work for your family for the next several years?

Those questions matter much more than trying to guess exactly where prices go next.

If you need the property to go up quickly just to make the purchase work, that’s something I’d be careful with.

 

If You’re Looking at a Presale, That’s a Separate Conversation

This is where two different things can easily get mixed together.

You might hear:

“There could be fewer new condos in the future, so maybe this presale will become more valuable.”

Maybe.

But future supply and the risk of the project you’re actually buying are not the same thing.

I’d still want to know:

Has construction started?

How far along is the project?

How much more are you paying compared with similar completed condos?

What happens to your financing if completion gets pushed back?

What does the contract say about delays or termination?

Fewer condos being built in the future does not automatically make every presale a good deal today.

You still have to look at the actual project.

 

If You’re Buying as an Investment, Look at the Rental Market Separately

This part is especially important.

CMHC says condo construction has been weak, but purpose-built rental has become a much larger share of new housing starts.

In simple terms:

We could build fewer condos for people to own while still building more apartments for people to rent.

That changes the conversation for an investor.

Fewer ownership condos does not automatically mean it becomes easier to find a tenant.

If several new rental buildings open nearby, they may compete pretty hard for renters.

They might offer free rent.

Parking incentives.

New amenities.

Move-in deals.

So before I buy an investment condo, I wouldn’t start with:

“Do I think the price will go up?”

I’d start with:

“Does this investment still make sense if the price doesn’t go up?”

What rent can you realistically get?

What are the strata fees?

Property taxes?

Insurance?

Repairs?

What happens if the unit sits empty for a while?

That’s the math I want to see.

 

If You’re Selling, Don’t Rely Too Much on the Future Supply Story

Sellers can make the opposite mistake.

You hear that fewer condos are being built and think:

“Great. My condo should be worth more.”

Maybe that becomes part of the story later.

But the buyer walking into your home today is mostly comparing your property with other homes they can buy today.

If there are three similar condos nearby and two of them have already reduced their prices, that matters.

What have similar units actually sold for?

What are your direct competitors asking?

Are buyers booking showings?

Are offers coming in?

That’s what I’d look at first.

Future supply gives us context.

It doesn’t automatically justify a higher asking price today.

 

Condo Sellers Shouldn’t Only Look at Other Resale Listings

This is something sellers miss all the time.

You might think your competition is just the other two resale units in your building.

The buyer may not see it that way.

If a developer nearby has brand-new completed condos for sale, the buyer may compare those too.

Price.

Size.

Layout.

Strata fees.

Parking.

Condition.

Move-in date.

Developer incentives.

From the buyer’s side, those can all become part of the same decision.

So instead of asking:

“Is my condo a good condo?”

I’d ask:

“Why would a buyer choose my condo over the other options they have right now?”

That answer has to make sense in the price and in the property itself.

Not just in the marketing.

 

What If You Can Wait to Sell?

Waiting could work.

If fewer condos are built and buyer demand comes back later, sellers could eventually have a better market.

But nobody knows exactly when that happens.

And waiting isn’t free.

Mortgage interest.

Strata fees.

Property taxes.

Insurance.

Repairs.

Maybe a special assessment.

All of that keeps going.

So I wouldn’t only ask:

“Could I sell for more later?”

I’d also ask:

“How much is it going to cost me to wait?”

Both numbers matter.

 

Moving Up? Don’t Look at Your Sale Price by Itself

Here’s a simple example.

Let’s say your condo used to be worth $800,000.

The home you wanted to buy was $1.4 million.

That’s a $600,000 gap.

Now imagine your condo is worth $750,000.

Not great.

But the home you want is now $1.25 million.

The gap is now $500,000.

Your condo dropped $50,000.

But the gap between what you’re selling and what you’re buying dropped by $100,000.

Real markets don’t move this neatly, and different property types can move very differently.

That’s not the point.

The point is:

If you’re selling because you want to buy something bigger, don’t only look at what your current home is worth. Look at the gap between the two homes.

That can completely change the conversation.

 

The 3 Things I’d Watch in the Vancouver Condo Market From Here

I wouldn’t keep staring at the 40% number by itself.

I’d watch three things together.

Are condo starts continuing to fall?

Is today’s condo inventory actually getting smaller?

Is buyer demand coming back?

That combination tells us much more.

If condo starts keep falling but inventory stays high and sales remain slow, buyers may still have plenty of choice.

If starts stay low, existing inventory gets absorbed, and buyers start coming back at the same time, that’s a different market.

One number doesn’t tell us all of that.

 

So What Does This News Actually Mean?

This is not:

“Buy a Vancouver condo now.”

And it’s not:

“Condo prices are about to take off.”

I think the better way to look at it is this:

Having a lot of condos available to buy today does not mean we’re building enough new ownership condos for the future.

Those two things can happen at the same time.

If you’re buying, don’t rush because of a future supply story.

Look at the choices and negotiating room you have today.

If you’re selling, don’t assume fewer future condo starts automatically make your home worth more today.

Look at what buyers are comparing your home against right now.

The big market headline matters.

But when you’re actually making a decision, what’s happening in your neighbourhood, building, price range, and property type matters a lot more.

That’s where I’d start.

Sources

CMHC — Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report

CMHC — 2026 Mid-Year Rental Market Update

This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

LET’S STAY CONNECTED 👋

🙋🏻‍♂️ Hey, I’m Danny with REAL Broker. Local realtor in Greater Vancouver.

Follow me long enough… then you’ll probably want to move to Vancouver 👀

I share Greater Vancouver real estate, local news, neighbourhoods, market updates, and everyday life here.

Find me on Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and YouTube:

@dannykimvanrealtor

Instagram: @dannykimvanrealtor
Facebook: @dannykimvanrealtor
TikTok: @dannykimvanrealtor
YouTube: @dannykimvanrealtor